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US natural gas prices: déjà vu all over again

Investors should retain their scepticism instead of believing prophecies of secular tailwinds

This time was supposed to be different. Last summer, the price of US natural gas hit a high of $10 per million British thermal units. The worry then was that Europe would run short of winter supplies as Russia cut its output in protest at sanctions.

Today, the price has fallen to just $2/mmbtu. Gas consumption in the US has hit a five-year low thanks to a mild winter. According to the US Energy Department, the country will finish March with more than 1.9tn cubic feet of gas in storage, a quarter more than the five-year average.

A massive production boom in the 2010s led to a glut, low prices and eventually financial distress for some businesses. Oil and gas drillers were forced into austerity by shareholders.

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