Europe’s migration system is again being strained to breaking point. For a second year running, the passport-free Schengen zone is set to receive more than 1mn asylum applications, the highest since a surge from Syria and elsewhere in 2015-16. Germany has imposed temporary controls on its land borders, under pressure to clamp down on irregular migration after a stabbing incident by a suspected Islamist migrant; the far-right Alternative for Germany party in the interim won its first victory in a state parliament ballot. Italy’s right-wing premier Giorgia Meloni has, meanwhile, been giving tips to the UK’s Keir Starmer on curbing irregular sea crossings, but some methods used by Italy — and its neighbours — are very questionable.
Continental Europe and the UK face a similar paradox. Rising migration — especially the irregular sort — is a lightning rod for the discontent of hard-pressed voters, which is fuelling support for extremist parties. Yet tight jobs markets and ageing populations mean much of Europe sorely needs migrant labour. The EU’s working-age population shrank by 5mn to 264mn in the decade to 2021; by 2050, Europe may have fewer than two working-age adults for each elderly person.
The EU adopted a new Migration and Asylum Pact in April aimed at curbing irregular arrivals and due to take full effect in 2026, but Hungary and Poland opposed it because of its migrant-sharing quotas. Already some countries are trying to unpick it. Tackling irregular arrivals must, though, be the foundation of a successful policy. Experience elsewhere suggests citizens are more tolerant of migration if they perceive borders to be properly protected. Canada, for example — hard to reach for irregular migrants — has long had generous legal immigration programmes (though even there, rising living costs have stoked a backlash).