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The writer is the former UK ambassador to Lebanon and foreign policy adviser to three prime ministers. His latest novel is ‘The Assassin’
本文作者是前英国驻黎巴嫩大使，并曾担任三位英国首相的外交政策顾问。他的最新小说是《刺客》(The Assassin)。
Civilians across the Middle East are braced once again against the increasing possibility of a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hizbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. After the devastation in Gaza, they anxiously watch the reckless high-stakes poker of hardliners who want to keep the region on the brink of war in order to keep themselves in power.
中东各地的平民再次做好准备，以应对以色列与伊朗支持的激进组织黎巴嫩真主党(Hizbollah)之间爆发全面冲突的可能性越来越大。在加沙遭受破坏之后，他们焦虑地注视着那些想要将该地区保持在战争边缘以保持自己权力的强硬派人物的鲁莽高风险的扑克游戏。
As every intelligence service is privately acknowledging, turning pagers and radios into lethal explosives was an audacious piece of tradecraft from Mossad, Israel’s spy agency. It hit Hizbollah’s command chain, communications and confidence. It is one of those moments in the Middle East that resonates beyond the immediate: it will be spoken about in hushed tones for years, perhaps decades. Social media makes the psychological impact even greater. Hizbollah is in shock, and seething. Its rank and file feel insecure.
正如每个情报机构私下承认的那样，将寻呼机和无线电变成致命炸弹是以色列间谍机构摩萨德(Mossad)的一项大胆技艺。它打击了黎巴嫩真主党的指挥链、通信和信心。这是中东地区那些超越当下的时刻之一：它将在未来的几年甚至几十年中以低声谈论的方式被提及。社交媒体使心理影响更加巨大。黎巴嫩真主党感到震惊和愤怒。它的普通成员感到不安。
The key question on the Hizbollah side is whether it absorbs this humiliating blow or hits back. It is probably a case of when, not if, it chooses to do so, alongside its threats of revenge for the assassinations of its leadership.
黎巴嫩真主党方面的关键问题是它是选择承受这一羞辱性打击还是进行反击。很可能是一个“何时”而不是“是否”的问题，伴随着对其领导层遇刺的报复威胁。
The key question on the Israeli side is whether this was a prelude to a serious land offensive, or just a psychological operation to degrade Hizbollah. I hear both explanations from the Israeli military, many of whom think it is only a question of when, not if, they launch a land invasion aimed at removing Hizbollah from the south of Lebanon and establishing some mirage of a “buffer zone”.
以色列方面的关键问题是，这究竟是一次大规模陆地进攻的前奏，还是一次削弱黎巴嫩真主党的心理战。我从以色列军方听到了这两种解释，他们中的许多人认为这只是何时而非是否发动陆地进攻的问题，目的是将黎巴嫩真主党赶出黎巴嫩南部，并建立某种海市蜃楼般的“缓冲区”。
Faced with this moment of peril, the international community must focus on two urgent challenges.
面对这一危机时刻，国际社会必须集中精力应对两个紧迫的挑战。
First, civilian protection. The reality is that hundreds of thousands of civilians — in Lebanon and Israel — are on the brink of a devastating escalation of this conflict if the hardliners get their way. Many are already displaced, injured and killed. They must be our central concern.
首先，保护平民。现实情况是，如果强硬派得逞，黎巴嫩和以色列的数十万平民正处于这场冲突毁灭性升级的边缘。许多人已经流离失所、受伤和丧生。他们必须成为我们的核心关切。
Second, upholding international law, including legal constraints on the conduct of war. As we have seen with cyber and lethal autonomous weapons, the speed of technological change means that the systems designed to contain the ingenuity of humans to find new ways to kill each other struggle to keep up. But the basic rules are not complicated, whether the weapon is a pager or a rocket: don’t kill civilians.
其次，维护国际法，包括对战争行为的法律约束。正如我们在网络和致命自主武器方面所看到的那样，技术变革的速度意味着，旨在遏制人类寻找新的相互杀戮方式的系统难以跟上。但无论武器是传呼机还是火箭，基本规则并不复杂：不要杀害平民。
Now, sadly, it appears that neither of those challenges is a major priority for the current leaders in Iran and Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s increasingly hardline government is focused on tactical wins. The Iranian regime is content to let others fight its battles. So we must also focus on preventing disastrous escalation.
现在，令人遗憾的是，这些挑战似乎都不是伊朗和以色列现任领导人的主要优先事项。本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)总理日益强硬的政府专注于战术胜利。伊朗政权满足于让其他国家打自己的仗。因此，我们还必须集中精力防止灾难性的升级。
There is space for diplomacy. It can build the off-ramps for both sides, for when leaders emerge with the wisdom to take them. UK foreign secretary David Lammy and others are working the phones to regional leaders. Wise voices and cool heads can prevail. The challenge is that both Israel and Lebanon are in political crisis — in Beirut, there is a caretaker government and no president, while in Israel, Netanyahu’s far-right coalition is fracturing.
有外交的空间。它可以为双方建立出口，以备领导者们有智慧时使用。英国外交大臣戴维•拉米(David Lammy)和其他人正在与地区领导人通话。明智的声音和冷静的头脑可以占上风。挑战在于以色列和黎巴嫩都处于政治危机中——在贝鲁特，有一个看守政府，没有总统；而在以色列，内塔尼亚胡的极右翼联盟正在分裂。
International mediation on Israel and Lebanon needs to deal not only with the short-term cessation of hostilities, but land-border demarcation, a permanent peace (not just a ceasefire) and the return of state authority to south Lebanon. The Lebanese army has to be supported to provide security on the border, as we have helped it to do on the border with Syria.
国际社会对以色列和黎巴嫩的调解不仅需要处理短期停火问题，还需要解决陆地边界划定、实现永久和平（不仅仅是停火）以及恢复黎巴嫩南部的国家权力。我们必须支持黎巴嫩军队在边境提供安全保障，就像我们在叙利亚边境上帮助它一样。
From my discussions with the Lebanese prime minister, Najib Mikati, and others, it has become clear that ultimately the key to regional de-escalation lies in Gaza ceasefire talks and hostage releases. There are still fundamental differences to overcome — how to manage the Rafah crossing, prisoner releases and the future of the so-called Philadelphi corridor, a narrow strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt. But with the right collective pressure and political will these obstacles are surmountable.
从我与黎巴嫩总理纳吉布•米卡提(Najib Mikati)和其他人的讨论中可以清楚地看出，最终实现地区缓和的关键在于加沙停火谈判和人质释放。仍然存在一些根本性的分歧需要克服，例如如何管理拉法过境点、释放囚犯以及所谓的菲拉德尔菲走廊的未来，这条走廊是加沙与埃及边境之间的一条狭窄地带。但是，只要有适当的集体压力和政治意愿，这些障碍是可以克服的。
Ultimately, the prize remains a big, bold agreement between Israel and the Arab world that includes the normalisation of relations; the creation of the long-promised Palestinian state; and the isolation of the Iranian regime. There is no way out of a wider crisis without hope that both Palestinians and Israelis have the right to security, justice and opportunity in lands they can call their own. This will require genuine partners for peace on both sides of the table.
最终，最大的成果仍将是以色列与阿拉伯世界之间达成一项重大而大胆的协议，其中包括关系正常化、建立长期承诺的巴勒斯坦国，以及孤立伊朗政权。如果没有希望让巴勒斯坦人和以色列人都能在他们各自称之为家园的土地上享有安全、正义和发展的权利，就无法摆脱更广泛的危机。这需要双方谈判桌上都有真正的和平伙伴。
So Britain and its allies should take the parameters for a two-state solution to the UN Security Council. Sometimes the immediacy of the danger can create space and urgency for negotiations.
因此，英国及其盟友应将两国解决方案的参数提交给联合国安理会(UN Security Council)。有时，迫在眉睫的危险可以为谈判创造空间和紧迫性。
Hamas, Hizbollah and Israeli hardliners want to bury a two-state solution, displace the other side and destroy the prospect of coexistence. The stakes are too high to let them do so.
哈马斯(Hamas)、黎巴嫩真主党和以色列强硬派希望埋葬两国解决方案，驱逐对方并摧毁共存的前景。赌注太高，不能让他们这样做。