The US election: it’s all about Elon Musk! Or so it might seem. The Tesla boss has thrown money and airtime at Donald Trump. A Republican win could put Musk in government, while a win for Democrat Kamala Harris could — he has joked — put him in prison. More likely, the contest will change his fortunes in more prosaic ways.
Musk’s sprawling business empire makes the election outcome very much in his interest — but it’s not clear he loses either way. Take Tesla, which sells half of all electric cars in the US. Democrats like clean transport. But if a triumphant Trump scraps some clean-car subsidies, Tesla’s lead over less-advanced rivals like General Motors looks more secure. Whoever wins, Americans will keep buying electric cars. In any case, Tesla’s $785bn market valuation hangs more on robotaxis and humanoid robots.
Seen from space, Musk has more to gain from a Republican win. He sees a trip to Mars — an important goal for his rocket-maker SpaceX — as unlikely under the Democrats. But be America red, blue or purple, Nasa and SpaceX are tied at the hip. The US space agency has notched up nearly $10bn of obligations to SpaceX since 2019, according to federal records. A Harris administration might not love that, but will have to live with it.