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Risk of breach of 1.5C of global warming here sooner than expected, studies find

Without stringent emissions cuts the world is ‘most probably’ already within the period defined in the Paris accord

The world may be in breach of the 1.5C level of long term global warming set down under the Paris agreement sooner than previous studies have shown, according to two new scientific papers.

The first paper, by researchers in Germany and Austria, found that without stringent cuts in emissions the world was “most probably” now within the two decades where a breach of the Paris agreement would occur.

“Cutting emissions has never been more important, and it can substantially lower the probability of reaching the 1.5C limit soon after 2024,” said lead author Emanuele Bevacqua, from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research.

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