German federal elections on Sunday will not only determine the future of Europe’s largest economy, but also the outlook for the whole continent as it grapples with existential questions, after the Trump administration made it clear that US security guarantees will not last “forever”.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government collapsed in November amid a fierce debate over how to deal with a shortfall of about €17bn in the 2025 budget, some of it linked to additional support for Ukraine in its battle against Russia’s invasion.
Friedrich Merz, leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is the frontrunner to become the next German leader. His party is leading in the polls and is poised to win about 30 per cent of the votes.