The Kurdish dream of an independent state in northern Iraq, which took wing with overwhelming support in a referendum on September 25, crashed to earth three weeks later, as Iran-backed Iraqi forces on Monday seized back Kirkuk, the oil-rich area contested between Kurds and Arabs, which could now become a new frontline for another war within the many wars tearing apart the Middle East.
Yet Kirkuk should also be seen as part of the geopolitical contest between Iran and the US, after President Donald Trump last week refused to certify that Tehran is complying with the nuclear deal it reached with world powers in 2015. Mr Trump made bellicose but vague threats; Iran is taking action across a number of fronts, obviously prepared well in advance. But first, Kirkuk.
When Masoud Barzani, president of the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq, decided to press ahead with a plebiscite on secession, it was always clear that his inclusion in the vote of Kirkuk and other disputed areas outside the KRG’s recognised border would be inflammatory.