It is that time of year when, if you’ve behaved very well and eaten all your Brussels sprouts, elves deliver 2019 macro and markets outlooks to your inbox. Last year, most heralded 2018 as the year of synchronised global growth. The theme did not really pan out, as US expansion far outstripped that of most developed economies thanks to fiscal stimulus.
But what if economists were not wrong, just premature? My view is that 2019 will see global synchronisation, but not in a good way. This year economists anticipated a global acceleration in growth. I expect a synchronised slowdown in the year to come.
The US has seen growth decelerate from the heady days of early 2018. It hit 4.2 per cent in the second quarter and 3.5 per cent in the third. But the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “nowcast” expects 3 per cent growth for the fourth quarter, a slowing brought on by uncertainty around trade policy and, soon, dwindling fiscal stimulus.