Forecasting is a dangerous game and one of the easiest ways to invite ridicule. The following comments, therefore, are not forecasts but simply form an indicative list of the key issues that those involved in any way in the energy business should be watching in 2019. The outcomes in each case will shape the market and the fortunes of the companies involved.
First and most immediate is the impact of US sanctions on Iran. A year ago, Iran was exporting some 2.1m barrels of oil a day. By November 2018, that had fallen to 1.1m b/d. If the sanctions are applied strictly, exports could fall close to zero — the stated intention of the US, designed to bring Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear plans.
If Iran compromises or finds a way around the sanctions, exports will increase again and prices are likely to fall. If the US enforces the sanctions in full, the fall in exports will stretch the current capacity of other producers to the limit, and prices are likely to rise. A variation of $20 or more either way from current prices is perfectly possible.