The sharp recovery in risk assets in January has followed significant policy changes by the US Federal Reserve, the Trump administration and the Chinese authorities. These actions have reduced the markets’ perception of recession risks, even as economic data have continued to weaken.
No lesser figure than the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell, himself has compared the current situation to that in early 2016, when a pause in US monetary tightening, and a Chinese stimulus, unleashed a major extension of the equity bull market.
Global equities rose by almost 50 per cent in 2016 and 2017 combined. Could anything comparable happen again?