Bond and equity markets have been telling stories in recent weeks that were essentially irreconcilable. While stocks exuded relentless optimism, bond yields plummeted in a recession-obsessed nervous swoon. By last week, 10-year US Treasuries were offering yields well below that of three-month bills — an inversion of the normal yield curve that has historically been a good guide to the risk of a recession.
Then equity investors finally twigged with a little help from Donald Trump’s decision to extend the trade war from China to Mexico.
Risk appetite vanished, the debt and equity stories converged and the S&P 500 index ended down more than 6 per cent on the month.