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China’s problem is excess savings, not too much capacity

Policymakers on either side of bitter trade dispute seem to confuse two issues

The writer is a is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

While China and its trade partners continue to clash bitterly over manufacturing overcapacity and global trade, much of the discussion seems to be occurring at cross purposes.

Excess Chinese capacity in targeted industrial sectors is one area of contention. Excess Chinese savings driven by the suppression of domestic demand is another issue. These two points of contention are very different but analysts and policymakers on either side seem to confuse the two.

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