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Economists are overly reliant on rules

Causal theories may help simplify the world, but reality is far more complex

Across the developing world some women still walk miles each day in order to fetch fresh water for their families. Building wells, to reduce the risk of waterborne illness and give women back their time, is therefore a popular project among development agencies. Yet these seemingly useful initiatives can sometimes fail.

During the war in Afghanistan, US marines found that one newly built village well had been destroyed — not by insurgents but by the women for whom it was built. Why? The daily walk for water was the women’s only chance to escape home life. Their action illuminates a simple but often forgotten point about policymaking: what is true in one place is not necessarily true in all.

Ceteris paribus — all else being equal — is a popular principle in the study of social science. By assessing the partial impact of one variable upon another, practitioners can develop causal theories. Sometimes, however, this can encourage blinkered thinking.

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