The writer is managing director at Crossborder Capital and author of ‘Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity’
If bull markets always climb a wall of worry, then financial crises often smash into a wall of debt. We are already walking into the foothills of another crisis. It is not just the growing size of the interest bill that matters, but more so the task of rolling over a pile of maturing debts. Next year and particularly 2026 will prove challenging years for investors.
Consider how, over the coming months, stock prices will not only have to defy growing investor doubts about growth and inflation, but by late 2025 they will have to scale a sizeable maturity wall of debts. This term describes the bunching in the refinancing of those debts mostly taken out, a few years back, when interest rates were rock bottom. Similar refinancing tensions have helped trigger several past financial meltdowns such as the 1997-98 Asian crisis and the 2008-09 financial crisis.